Ethiopia-TPLF War Reignites Across Regions

Fighting between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, resumed on Wednesday and has spread across Tigray, Amhara, and Afar. Ethiopia’s army commander, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, accused Sudan, Egypt, and unspecified external powers of backing and supplying forces fighting federal troops. Sudan’s military rejected the accusation as baseless and counterclaimed that the Rapid Support Forces, its adversary in Sudan’s civil war, receives training, supplies, and drone-related support from Ethiopian territory.

The military situation remains fluid. A source said federal forces had recaptured Alamata in southern Tigray and were advancing toward Mekhoni and Maychew. Separately, Ethiopia’s army was reported to have recaptured Sekota, a strategic town in Amhara. The TPLF has captured airports and mounted operations into Afar and Amhara, including the reported seizure of Erebti in Afar. Its forces were said to be advancing toward Afdera, about 100 kilometers east of Erebti. These claims indicate multiple contested fronts, but the available accounts do not provide independently verified territorial control or casualty figures.

The conflict has also entered the information and infrastructure domain. Telecommunications and internet services in Tigray have been severely disrupted since Friday, limiting reporting and communication. A drone strike hit the headquarters of Tigrai TV in Mekelle after the federal government had announced the broadcaster’s indefinite suspension. Responsibility for the strike and the communications disruption remains unconfirmed. The United Nations secretary-general expressed concern over drone use and reported civilian harm. The renewed conflict follows the formation of an alliance of seven armed groups, including the TPLF, that seeks to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.

The resumption of sustained fighting raises the prospect that a localized confrontation in Tigray could again become a multi-front national conflict. The TPLF’s operations in Afar and Amhara, alongside the participation of six other armed groups in an anti-government alliance, expand the pressure on federal forces beyond Tigray itself. Conversely, reported federal gains at Alamata and Sekota suggest the government is seeking to contest insurgent mobility across the southern Tigray and Amhara approaches. The immediate strategic question is not only which side holds individual towns, but whether either can sustain operations across several regions without overextending its forces.

Afar is especially important because the TPLF has identified the area as a route for disrupting supply lines from Djibouti, through which most Ethiopian imports, including fuel, enter the country. A rebel advance toward Afdera does not establish that these supply lines have been cut, but it increases the potential vulnerability of a critical economic corridor. The threat can impose costs before any physical interdiction occurs by forcing the federal government to devote military resources to route security and by increasing uncertainty for commercial activity dependent on reliable access to imports. The degree to which fighting moves closer to, or disrupts, this corridor will be a key indicator of whether the conflict is leading to national economic consequences.

Ethiopia’s accusations against Sudan and Egypt broaden the political stakes even though the alleged support remains unverified. By framing the TPLF and affiliated forces as externally backed, Addis Ababa may face a more difficult environment for reducing tensions through domestic military or political measures alone. Sudan’s counteraccusation also links the dispute to its own civil war, creating a risk that distrust across the border will deepen. The practical significance of the allegations will depend on whether either government provides substantiating information, changes its military posture, or takes diplomatic steps that suggest the dispute is moving beyond rhetoric.

The apparent use of drones and the communications blackout increase humanitarian and analytical risk. Reduced connectivity constrains civilian access to information and makes it harder to establish responsibility for strikes, assess casualties, or verify battlefield claims. That opacity can permit competing narratives to shape perceptions faster than events can be assessed. The previous 2020-2022 war caused high casualties, making the speed with which current operations spread, the protection of civilians, and restoration of communications central indicators of whether the renewed conflict can be contained.