Japan and India Lead Asia’s Response to Oil Supply Crisis
Intelligence Summary
The escalation of the United States–Israel–Iran conflict has triggered severe disruptions in global energy supply chains, with Asian economies among the hardest hit. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes, has forced governments across Asia to activate emergency measures to secure fuel and stabilize domestic markets.
Japan has initiated the release of 80 million barrels of oil from its national reserves, a decision announced by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and published in the government’s official gazette on March 16, 2026. The move was part of a broader International Energy Agency (IEA) initiative to coordinate the release of 400 million barrels globally to cushion markets from the war’s impact. Despite these measures, Brent crude prices surged above $100 per barrel, reaching $104.85 as of early March 16, representing a 40 percent increase since the conflict began on February 28. Japan, which imports about 80 percent of its energy, stated that it would not deploy naval forces to the Strait of Hormuz despite calls from the United States to assist in reopening the waterway.
India has faced acute shortages of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and crude oil as Gulf exports plummeted following the outbreak of hostilities. On March 17, 2026, the LPG tanker *Nanda Devi* arrived at Vadinar Port in Gujarat carrying approximately 46,000 metric tons of LPG after navigating the Strait of Hormuz under Indian naval escort. This was the second Indian tanker to reach home safely under “Operation Sankalp,” a naval mission launched to protect Indian-flagged vessels in the Gulf. The Indian government credited diplomatic negotiations with Tehran for enabling the safe passage of its ships and confirmed that additional tankers were en route. A third vessel, *Jag Laadki*, carrying crude oil from the United Arab Emirates, was also expected to arrive the same day after narrowly avoiding an attack at Fujairah port.
India’s foreign ministry reported that 22 Indian vessels remained in the conflict zone, and efforts were underway to bring them home safely. Foreign Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar stated that there was no blanket agreement with Iran for safe passage, indicating that each transit required case-by-case negotiation. The government has also encouraged households to switch from LPG to piped natural gas to reduce pressure on limited imports.
The crisis has disrupted air travel and trade routes across the region. The United Arab Emirates temporarily closed its airspace following Iranian attacks, suspending operations at Dubai International Airport. Air India and its subsidiary Air India Express announced 44 scheduled and non-scheduled flights to and from the Middle East on March 17 to repatriate Indian nationals and maintain essential connectivity.
The energy shock has also intensified diplomatic maneuvering. India’s foreign ministry emphasized that its engagement with Tehran was focused on securing energy supplies and ensuring maritime safety rather than aligning with any military bloc. Meanwhile, Japan’s decision to act unilaterally on oil reserves underscored the limits of collective security coordination in Asia amid the crisis. Both countries’ actions reflect a broader regional trend of prioritizing national energy security over alliance-based responses.
Why it Matters
The energy disruptions caused by the Iran conflict have exposed Asia’s structural vulnerability to Middle Eastern supply shocks and underscored the strategic importance of maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. Japan’s emergency release of 80 million barrels from its reserves demonstrates the scale of the crisis and Tokyo’s determination to maintain economic stability without direct military involvement. This decision reflects Japan’s long-standing constitutional and political constraints on overseas military operations, as well as its preference for economic and diplomatic tools over force projection. The refusal to deploy naval assets despite U.S. pressure highlights a growing divergence between Washington and its Asian allies on crisis management in the Gulf.
India’s naval escort operations under “Operation Sankalp” mark a significant assertion of maritime autonomy. By negotiating directly with Tehran for safe passage and deploying its navy to protect commercial shipping, New Delhi has demonstrated a capacity for independent crisis management. This approach signals India’s intent to balance relations with both Western powers and Iran while safeguarding its energy lifelines. The coordination between diplomatic and naval channels also illustrates how energy security has become a central driver of India’s foreign and defense policy.
The crisis has accelerated a shift toward diversified energy strategies across Asia. Japan’s reliance on strategic reserves and India’s push for domestic natural gas adoption indicate a recognition that dependence on Gulf oil is no longer sustainable under conditions of persistent geopolitical volatility. These measures may catalyze longer-term investments in alternative energy sources, regional supply networks, and strategic stockpiling mechanisms.
At the same time, the crisis has reinforced the geopolitical leverage of energy-producing states outside the Gulf, particularly Russia. As Asian economies seek stable suppliers, Moscow’s role as a potential alternative energy partner is likely to expand, deepening its economic and political influence in the region. This dynamic could reshape the balance of power in Asia’s energy landscape, with implications for Western sanctions regimes and global energy governance.
The disruption of air and maritime routes has also highlighted the intersection of energy security and civilian mobility. The temporary closure of UAE airspace and the suspension of flights through Dubai underscore how quickly regional conflicts can paralyze global transport hubs. India’s rapid organization of repatriation flights demonstrates the logistical and diplomatic challenges of maintaining connectivity during wartime conditions.
Overall, the energy crisis triggered by the Iran conflict has become a test case for how Asian powers manage strategic autonomy under global stress. Japan’s reliance on reserves, India’s naval diplomacy, and the broader regional scramble for supply diversification all point to a future in which energy security is increasingly intertwined with national defense, maritime strategy, and geopolitical competition.
Key Actors
- India
- Japan
- Iran
- United States
- International Energy Agency (IEA)
- United Arab Emirates
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